2026 is Going to Suck…Or Maybe Not: Reverse Psychology & the Housing Market Outlook

If you’ve been watching the Southern California housing market (or the Washington real estate scene), you know the last few years have felt like running a marathon in sand. Low inventory, affordability issues, and mortgage rate volatility have kept buyers, sellers, and even seasoned agents in a constant state of “is this the year things change?”

Every December, I usually step into the new year optimistic — predicting a turnaround, more transactions, rate relief, and buyers returning to the market. But after three years of waiting for the rocket ship to launch…we’re still hovering around the same level of ~4 million existing home sales nationwide, when normal is closer to 5 million+.

So this year, I’m trying something new:
 reverse psychology on the housing market.
2026? Yeah, it’s gonna suck. Awful. Hopeless. Definitely no reason to think rates could improve, or inventory could loosen up, or affordability might inch forward. Nope. Zero upside.
(Wink, wink.)

Sound sarcastic? It is. Watch the video