Waiting for Lower Rates? Here’s What the Math Actually Says

A new report from Totality (formerly CoreLogic) just revised its 2026 home price forecast upward—from 4.3% to 4.5%, right in line with long-term appreciation trends in markets like Southern California.
With affordability top of mind, many buyers are waiting for rates to fall. That sounds logical—until you run the numbers.
I compared two scenarios:

• Buying an $800,000 home today with 10% down
• Waiting one year, assuming prices rise 4.5%
• Rates improving by 0.50%
  Despite the lower rate, the higher purchase price nearly erased the benefit—resulting in a $7/month difference.
  Even more interesting?
  Buying now and refinancing later could actually put a buyer hundreds of dollars ahead long-term.
  No one can predict rates or prices perfectly—but history shows prices tend to rise, while refinancing remains an option.
  The takeaway:
  Waiting feels safe.
  Running the numbers is smarter.